UNREVISED MACRO DATA - ALL OBSERVATIONS ARE PRELIMINARY NUMBERS GIVEN IN SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
as data became available - 1960:2-1993:4 - quarterly - the product account data is seasonally adj.
and is annualized, except ip index, which is just seasonally adj - to get % growth rates, use 400*DELTA(LOGx(t))
- the non product account data consists of the unemployment rate (%, sa), and the AAA bond rate
- the ip, aaa, and Unemp are monthly, and should be averaged to get quarterly values (for the ip, can calculate growth
- note: if want to use growth rates, then should use [[log(current) [or log(current forecast for the survey data)] minus
log(previous given preliminary data - for both usual and survey data growth rates)]]
the actual series are: all are from Survey Current Busines (SBC)
gnp(nom) SCB - table 1.1, billions, current, saar
gnp(real) SCB - table 1.2, billions, real, saar
pce Personal Cons. Expen. SCB - table 1.2, billions, real, saar
(delta)B.I. Change in Busi. Inven. SCB - table 1.2, billions, real, saar
NetX Net X of Goods & Svcs. SCB - table 1.2, billions, real, saar
Profits Cor. Prof. after Taxes SCB - table 1.14, billions, current, saar
ip Industr. Production SCB - table C-3, sa, total index
unem Civilian Unem. Rate SCB - table C-2, sa, percent
aaa Dom. Corp. Bond SCB - table S-6, Moody's Aaa, percent
date gnp(nom) gnp(real) pce (delta)B.I. NetX Profits ip(1) ip(2) ip(3) unem(1)unem(2)unem(3) aaa(1)aaa(2)aaa(3)
all 1954 except ip is 1957
1960:1 500.2 439.3 293.5 9.2 -0.7 25.0 111 110 109 5.2 4.8 5.4 4.61 4.56 4.49
2 505.0 442.2 298.3 4.8 0.7 23.4 109 110 109 5.0 4.9 5.5 4.45 4.46 4.45
3 503.5 438.0 296.9 0.6 2.2 21.3 109 109 107 5.4 5.9 5.7 4.41 4.28 4.25
4 503.5 437.0 297.6 -2.4 3.4 20.8 107 105 103 6.4 6.3 6.8 4.30 4.31 4.35
1961:1 499.8 432.4 294.7 -3.8 3.8 20.0 102 102 102 6.6 6.8 6.9 4.32 4.27 4.22
2 516.1 445.5 301.6 2.9 1.9 22.8 105 108 110 6.8 6.9 6.8 4.25 4.27 4.33
3 525.8 451.8 305.0 3.9 0.6 23.8 112 113 112 6.9 6.9 6.8 4.41 4.45 4.45
4 542.2 464.6 310.8 4.7 2.0 26.5 113 114 115 6.8 6.1 6.1 4.42 4.39 4.42
1962:1 548.3 468.2 312.8 6.1 1.3 25.9 114 115 116 5.8 5.6 5.5 4.42 4.42 4.39
2 552.0 470.8 316.9 3.7 0.7 26.1 117 118 118 5.5 5.4 5.5 4.33 4.28 4.28
3 555.3 471.6 319.0 0.8 -0.3 26.1 119 119 119 5.3 5.8 5.8 4.34 4.35 4.32
** ** ip switch to 57-59=100 1962:3 119.3 119.6 119.8
4 563.5 477.7 322.8 1.3 0.5 27.3 119.5 119.5 119.6 5.5 5.8 5.6 4.28 4.25 4.24
1963:1 571.8 482.7 325.3 3.0 0.5 27.1 119.0 119.1 120.4 5.8 6.1 5.6 4.21 4.19 4.19
2 579.6 489.4 327.0 3.8 2.8 26.8 122.4 123.8 125.1 5.7 5.9 5.7 4.20 4.22 4.23
3 588.7 495.1 330.1 4.0 2.3 27.4 126.5 125.6 125.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 4.26 4.29 4.31
4 600.1 501.7 332.8 5.0 3.3 28.7 126.6 126.9 127.2 5.5 5.9 5.5 4.32 4.33 4.35
1964:1 608.0 506.4 339.0 2.1 4.5 31.1 127.1 127.6 128.6 5.6 5.4 5.4 4.37 4.36 4.38
2 618.5 513.7 345.0 3.3 3.4 31.7 129.2 130.3 131.8 5.4 5.1 5.3 4.40 4.41 4.41
3 627.5 518.2 351.9 2.5 4.5 32.0 132.7 133.5 133.9 4.9 5.1 5.2 4.40 4.41 4.42
4 633.5 521.5 352.4 5.0 5.2 31.7 131.7 134.9 137.0 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.42 4.43 4.44
1965:1 649.0 532.9 360.6 6.0 2.7 36.5 137.7 138.8 140.1 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.43 4.41 4.42
2 658.0 536.7 390.2 6.5 6.7 44.4 140.8 141.3 141.9 4.9 4.6 4.7 4.43 4.44 4.46
** NP /1958 1965:2 601.7 390.2 6.5 6.7
3 676.9 609.1 396.7 5.8 7.3 44.8 143.6 144.4 142.8 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.48 4.49 4.52
4 694.6 621.7 402.8 6.8 6.1 45.9 143.6 145.5 148.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.56 4.60 4.68
1966:1 714.1 633.8 409.9 7.7 5.7 48.4 149.9 151.3 152.9 4.0 3.7 3.8 4.74 4.78 4.92
2 732.0 644.2 412.2 11.6 4.6 48.7 153.4 154.8 155.8 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.96 4.98 5.07
3 746.0 650.7 418.3 9.1 4.2 48.3 157.5 158.3 158.2 3.9 3.9 3.8 5.17 5.31 5.49
4 759.1 657.0 418.5 13.2 4.7 48.2 158.6 158.3 158.7 3.9 3.7 3.8 5.41 5.35 5.39
1967:1 764.3 657.2 422.0 5.2 5.3 45.3 157.9 155.9 156.4 3.7 3.7 3.6 5.20 5.03 5.13
2 775.3 664.6 430.6 0.4 4.1 46.6 155.9 155.5 155.2 3.7 3.8 4.0 5.11 5.24 5.44
3 790.1 671.6 431.5 3.5 4.2 47.2 156.3 158.0 156.3 3.9 3.8 4.1 5.58 5.62 5.65
4 807.6 679.4 433.2 8.4 2.9 50.3 156.2 159.0 161.6 4.3 3.9 3.7 5.82 6.07 6.19
1968:1 827.3 689.7 444.7 2.5 0.6 52.2 161.2 161.3 162.1 3.5 3.7 3.6 6.17 6.10 6.11
2 850.8 701.7 447.5 9.4 -2.2 50.3 162.7 163.7 164.4 3.5 3.5 3.8 6.21 6.27 6.28
3 870.8 712.0 455.7 6.8 0.7 51.0 165.3 164.0 163.4 3.7 3.5 3.6 6.24 6.02 5.97
4 887.8 719.1 454.8 9.1 0.7 52.9 165.0 167.4 168.9 3.6 3.3 3.3 6.09 6.19 6.45
1969:1 903.4 723.6 460.1 6.1 -2.3 53.0 169.4 169.5 170.5 3.3 3.3 3.4 6.59 6.66 6.85
2 925.1 727.3 466.2 6.0 -0.5 51.6 171.5 172.8 173.9 3.5 3.5 3.4 6.89 6.78 6.98
3 942.3 730.4 466.5 9.3 0.4 50.0 175.2 174.3 173.8 3.6 3.5 4.0 7.08 6.97 7.14
4 953.1 730.5 468.5 6.7 0.3 49.1 173.3 171.1 170.9 3.9 3.4 3.4 7.33 7.35 7.72
1970:1 960.4 726.9 471.9 2.5 1.3 46.1 169.9 169.4 170.2 3.9 4.2 4.4 7.97 7.93 7.84
2 970.1 724.3 477.5 2.5 2.1 44.3 170.4 169.0 168.6 4.8 5.0 4.7 7.83 8.11 8.48
3 985.2 727.5 480.2 3.2 2.9 45.4 169.2 169.0 166.0 5.0 5.1 5.5 8.44 8.13 8.09
4 990.9 721.3 477.1 3.5 1.9 42.1 162.3 161.4 163.9 5.6 5.8 6.0 8.03 8.05 7.64
1971:1 1018.4 731.6 485.3 2.1 2.2 42.1 165.1 164.8 165.2 6.0 5.8 6.0 7.36 7.08 7.21
2 1040.5 736.3 491.5 4.0 -0.7 44.6 166.0 167.3 167.9 6.1 6.2 5.6 7.25 7.53 7.64
** ** ip switch to 67 = 100 1971:2 106.2 107.0 107.0
3 1059.0 743.6 496.7 1.7 -0.5 45.8 106.0 105.1 105.3 5.8 6.1 6.0 7.64 7.59 7.44
4 1073.0 751.7 499.2 1.9 -0.7 49.8 106.3 107.0 107.8 5.8 6.0 6.1 7.39 7.26 7.25
1972:1 1103.2 761.0 503.5 0.3 -3.5 52.3 107.9 109.0 109.6 5.9 5.7 5.9 7.19 7.27 7.24
2 1139.0 783.1 519.5 3.3 -2.4 52.4 110.9 111.6 112.7 5.9 5.9 5.5 7.30 7.30 7.23
3 1162.2 795.3 528.7 4.5 -0.8 53.7 113.6 114.6 115.2 5.5 5.6 5.5 7.21 7.17 7.22
4 1195.8 812.4 538.6 7.7 -0.3 57.3 116.7 118.5 119.3 5.5 5.2 5.2 7.21 7.12 7.08
1973:1 1235.5 827.1 551.0 5.7 -1.0 62.3 119.8 120.8 121.7 5.0 5.1 5.0 7.15 7.22 7.29
2 1271.0 834.6 553.8 3.9 4.9 72.6 123.0 123.4 123.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 7.26 7.29 7.37
3 1304.0 841.6 556.8 5.9 5.4 71.5 126.3 126.2 127.4 4.7 4.8 4.8 7.45 7.68 7.63
4 1334.0 844.1 554.5 10.9 9.2 72.0 127.8 127.2 126.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 7.60 7.67 7.68
1974:1 1351.8 832.0 547.5 4.9 11.7 80.2 125.7 124.8 123.9 5.2 5.2 5.1 7.83 7.85 8.01
2 1383.5 828.0 542.3 9.1 9.1 91.1 124.7 125.4 125.5 5.0 5.2 5.2 8.25 8.37 8.47
3 1411.6 821.1 546.7 3.2 6.9 94.9 125.7 125.2 125.5 5.3 5.4 5.8 8.72 9.00 9.24
4 1428.0 803.7 530.1 9.1 8.9 81.1 124.9 122.0 118.3 6.0 6.5 7.1 9.27 8.89 8.89
1975:1 1419.2 782.3 532.3 -11.0 11.0 61.8 113.7 110.3 109.6 8.2 8.2 8.7 8.83 8.62 8.67
2 1433.4 779.4 539.6 -18.8 10.9 67.4 109.4 109.2 110.0 8.9 9.2 8.6 8.95 8.90 8.77
3 1497.8 804.6 548.9 -4.8 11.2 82.2 110.8 112.9 116.2 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.84 8.95 8.95
** NP/1972 1975:3 1201.5 771.6 -0.8 23.5
4 1573.2 1217.4 778.2 0.2 24.3 80.6 116.5 116.8 118.5 8.6 8.3 8.3 8.86 8.78 8.79
1976:1 1616.3 1238.4 793.7 9.5 17.1 84.3 119.3 120.2 121.7 7.8 7.6 7.5 8.60 8.55 8.52
2 1673.0 1259.7 808.7 9.5 15.8 81.1 126.5 129.5 130.1 7.5 7.3 7.5 8.40 8.58 8.62
3 1709.7 1272.2 816.4 9.9 16.5 84.8 130.7 131.3 131.0 7.8 7.9 7.8 8.56 8.45 8.38
4 1748.5 1281.5 826.6 4.7 15.3 86.9 130.4 131.9 132.8 7.9 8.1 7.9 8.32 8.25 7.98
1977:1 1792.5 1296.8 842.2 4.9 12.1 87.6 131.9 133.3 135.0 7.3 7.5 7.3 7.96 8.04 8.10
2 1869.0 1331.6 854.6 12.5 10.0 104.1 136.3 137.6 138.3 7.0 6.9 7.1 8.04 8.05 7.95
3 1911.3 1343.2 858.0 13.2 9.5 103.7 138.9 138.2 138.7 6.9 7.1 6.9 7.94 7.98 7.92
4 1965.1 1361.4 876.4 7.7 10.6 104.9 139.1 139.3 139.6 7.0 6.7 6.4 8.04 8.08 8.19
1978:1 1992.9 1358.3 879.2 11.3 4.5 102.9 138.5 139.0 141.0 6.3 6.1 6.2 8.41 8.47 8.47
2 2076.9 1378.6 886.5 13.1 7.8 117.3 142.9 143.8 144.6 6.0 6.1 5.7 8.56 8.69 8.76
3 2141.1 1394.3 893.7 10.7 12.0 122.0 145.9 146.7 147.0 6.2 5.9 6.0 8.88 8.69 8.69
4 2210.8 1412.2 910.0 7.7 11.0 130.7 148.5 149.5 150.5 5.8 5.8 5.9 8.89 9.03 9.16
1979:1 2265.6 1417.3 915.7 11.8 8.9 137.9 150.8 151.0 152.0 5.8 5.7 5.7 9.25 9.26 9.37
2 2327.2 1418.8 913.5 16.8 12.9 138.6 150.2 151.8 152.3 5.8 5.8 5.6 9.38 9.50 9.29
3 2395.4 1434.4 925.9 7.9 19.7 147.9 152.6 151.6 152.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 9.20 9.23 9.44
4 2455.8 1438.4 935.2 3.2 20.7 148.8 152.4 151.8 152.3 6.0 5.8 5.9 10.13 10.76 10.74
1980:1 2520.3 1444.2 939.0 0.0 20.8 155.5 152.7 152.4 151.3 6.2 6.0 6.2 11.09 12.38 12.96
2 2523.4 1410.8 913.6 2.3 29.3 129.3 148.6 144.7 141.0 7.0 7.8 7.7 12.04 10.99 10.58
3 2583.0 1412.1 922.4 -6.8 31.6 137.2 139.8 141.0 143.7 7.8 7.6 7.5 11.07 11.64 12.02
4 2741.4 1490.1 943.0 -0.2 52.9 125.1 146.5 149.2 150.9 7.6 7.5 7.4 12.31 12.97 13.21
1981:1 2826.8 1509.2 957.8 -5.7 51.8 131.6 151.5 151.1 152.2 7.4 7.3 7.3 12.81 13.35 13.33
2 2881.0 1509.1 955.6 9.7 46.0 150.1 152.3 152.8 152.9 7.3 7.6 7.3 13.88 14.32 13.75
3 2947.0 1508.2 965.2 10.3 39.5 130.8 153.4 153.3 151.8 7.0 7.2 7.5 14.38 14.89 15.49
4 2984.9 1495.6 958.3 8.5 36.7 121.2 149.6 146.4 143.4 8.0 8.4 8.9 15.40 14.22 14.23
1982:1 2995.1 1483.6 966.8 -17.5 37.8 115.9 139.6 142.3 141.5 8.5 8.8 9.0 15.18 15.27 14.58
2 3047.4 1476.8 956.3 -6.9 35.6 115.0 140.7 139.4 138.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 14.46 14.26 14.81
3 3091.4 1481.2 958.4 0.7 30.7 119.1 138.7 138.1 137.4 9.8 9.8 10.1 14.61 13.71 12.94
4 3101.3 1471.7 968.0 -17.7 21.1 98.5 136.2 134.8 135.0 10.4 10.8 10.8 12.12 11.68 11.83
1983:1 3176.7 1488.5 972.4 -12.4 24.0 112.5 136.9 137.6 139.7 10.4 10.4 10.3 11.79 12.01 11.73
2 3273.7 1521.4 1010.5 -4.5 10.2 124.1 142.7 144.3 146.0 10.2 10.1 10.0 11.51 11.46 11.74
3 3363.3 1554.4 1019.2 4.8 8.7 141.9 149.2 151.4 153.6 9.5 9.5 9.3 12.15 12.51 12.37
4 3432.0 1570.5 1032.2 7.5 2.5 142.9 155.1 156.1 156.4 8.8 8.4 8.2 12.25 12.41 12.57
1984:1 3541.2 1604.3 1046.8 26.6 -6.5 148.5 158.0 160.0 160.9 8.0 7.8 7.8 12.20 12.08 12.57
2 3646.4 1640.2 1061.7 21.5 -10.0 152.9 162.5 162.8 164.1 7.8 7.5 7.1 12.81 13.28 13.55
3 3701.2 1649.6 1064.6 31.2 -22.7 139.3 165.8 166.1 165.2 7.5 7.5 7.4 13.44 12.87 12.66
4 3752.5 1661.1 1076.2 14.2 -15.2 142.3 164.3 165.2 165.9 7.4 7.2 7.2 12.63 12.29 12.13
1985:1 3819.9 1668.0 1087.9 20.7 -26.1 140.0 165.5 164.9 165.8 7.4 7.3 7.3 12.08 12.13 12.56
** ** ip switch to 77 = 100 1985:2 123.6 123.7 124.0
2 3853.5 1670.7 1103.1 5.8 -33.8 136.5 124.3 124.4 124.7 7.3 7.3 7.3 12.23 11.72 10.94
3 3916.1 1684.8 1115.2 -2.1 -34.0 144.7 124.4 124.8 124.9 7.3 7.0 7.1 10.97 11.05 11.07
** NP/1982 1985:3 3584.1 2329.6 -1.8 -119.8
4 4075.1 3605.0 2328.7 0.1 -127.6 149.5 124.6 125.1 126.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 11.02 10.55 10.16
1986:1 4116.7 3619.2 2354.8 26.0 -126.0 139.5 126.5 125.7 124.9 6.7 7.3 7.2 10.05 9.67 9.00
2 4182.3 3665.7 2407.0 19.6 -146.3 140.8 125.0 124.7 124.2 7.1 7.3 7.1 8.79 9.09 9.13
3 4234.3 3683.3 2450.4 -4.5 -164.6 144.0 124.6 125.1 125.2 6.9 6.8 7.0 8.88 8.72 8.89
4 4268.4 3702.4 2445.1 -11.5 -155.6 144.2 125.2 126.0 126.4 7.0 7.0 6.7 8.86 8.68 8.49
1987:1 4339.2 3735.2 2443.1 31.0 -134.2 136.6 126.8 127.1 126.8 6.7 6.7 6.6 8.36 8.38 8.36
2 4448.8 3796.4 2488.7 41.2 -127.8 134.4 127.2 128.0 128.8 6.3 6.3 6.1 8.85 9.33 9.32
3 4512.0 3831.2 2517.0 18.1 -137.9 141.5 130.3 131.0 130.9 6.0 6.0 5.9 9.42 9.67 10.18
4 4598.0 3875.1 2496.6 58.3 -130.7 144.2 132.0 133.1 133.6 6.0 5.9 5.8 10.52 11.01 10.11
1988:1 4660.9 3902.6 2528.2 57.9 -132.2 146.4 134.2 134.4 134.7 5.8 5.7 5.6 9.88 9.40 9.39
2 4806.9 3986.3 2574.2 45.0 -90.1 132.6 135.5 136.1 136.6 5.4 5.6 5.3 9.67 9.90 9.86
3 4899.5 4007.3 2601.3 33.8 -94.9 163.1 137.9 138.3 138.7 5.4 5.6 5.4 9.96 10.11 9.82
4 4989.9 4029.2 2621.9 29.2 -100.7 173.9 139.3 139.8 140.6 5.3 5.4 5.3 9.51 9.45 9.57
1989:1 5116.8 4088.2 2634.8 53.8 -95.6 171.6 141.1 141.0 140.5 5.4 5.1 5.0 9.62 9.64 9.80
2 5194.9 4123.9 2648.2 22.0 -52.6 164.3 141.4 141.4 141.4 5.3 5.2 5.3 9.79 9.57 9.10
3 5273.2 4158.1 2691.2 30.2 -74.1 149.5 142.0 142.4 142.4 5.2 5.2 5.3 8.93 8.96 9.01
4 5337.0 4168.1 2689.3 32.6 -61.8 156.7 141.3 142.3 142.5 5.3 5.4 5.3 8.92 8.89 8.86
** ** ip switch to 87 = 100 1989:4 107.1 108.1 108.6
1990:1 5441.2 4195.8 2710.1 2.6 -41.2 157.0 107.2 108.1 108.8 5.3 5.3 5.2 8.99 9.22 9.37
2 5451.6 4163.2 2675.2 26.2 -46.5 166.7 108.7 109.7 109.8 5.4 5.3 5.2 9.46 9.47 9.26
3 5514.4 4173.6 2702.7 7.8 -52.5 177.2 109.9 109.8 110.7 5.5 5.6 5.7 9.24 9.41 9.56
4 5518.9 4147.6 2675.8 -16.3 -23.6 181.1 109.6 107.5 107.1 5.7 5.9 6.1 9.53 9.30 9.05
1991:1 5562.3 4123.9 2664.1 -20.7 2.2 167.6 106.5 105.7 105.3 6.2 6.5 6.8 9.62 8.83 8.93
2 5620.5 4128.4 2687.2 -21.2 -18.6 163.7 105.1 104.0 106.9 6.6 6.9 7.0 8.86 8.86 9.01
**to 1987 1991:2 3252.4 -30.4 -12.3
3 5670.8 4143.1 3270.6 0.4 -32.3 189.9 107.6 108.2 108.1 6.8 6.8 6.7 9.00 8.75 8.61
**to 1987 & to GDP
** 1991:3 5709.2 4862.7
4 5736.6 4866.3 3262.2 2.7 -8.3 190.3 108.2 107.8 107.8 6.8 6.8 7.1 8.55 8.48 8.31
1992:1 5809.3 4891.9 3313.8 -26.1 -17.8 204.9 106.7 107.2 107.2 7.1 7.3 7.3 8.20 8.29 8.35
gnp 5836.5 4912.9
2 5893.6 4890.5 3286.6 1.0 -35.9 234.6 108.2 108.8 108.2 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.33 8.28 8.22
gnp 5909.3 4900.6
3 5967.1 4924.5 3316.1 14.7 -51.5 218.8 108.9 111.3 108.6 7.7 7.6 7.5 8.07 7.95 7.92
gnp 5993.1 4949.0
4 6061.9 4979.8 3353.6 7.2 -54.6 242.6 109.6 109.7 110.5 7.4 7.2 7.3 7.99 8.10 7.98
gnp 6086.8 4995.9
1993:1 6158.8 5013.1 3369.9 35.8 -54.6 253.8 111.0 111.8 112.0 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.91 7.71 7.58
gnp 6168.1 5019.6
2 6206.9 5019.5 3398.1 8.2 -69.9 264.3 110.0 110.4 110.1 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.46 7.43 7.66
gnp 6323.3 5101.3
3 6396.3 5138.0 3467.9 7.3 -80.1 274.4 110.6 111.1 111.0 6.8 6.7 6.7 7.17 6.85 6.66
gnp 6397.4 5140.5
4 6510.8 5212.1 3503.9 12.7 -95.6 112.0 113.2 114.0 6.8 6.4 6.4 6.67 6.93 6.93
gnp