PARTICIPATION & PRESENTATION
Momtaz Uddin AHMED, Dhaka University, Dhaka
“Foreign Direct Investment and Technology Flows in Asia and the Pacific
Region in the 1990s”
Juanjai AJANANT, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
“Trade and Industrialization of Thailand in 2020”
Narongchai AKRASANEE, Seranee Holdings Company Ltd, Bangkok
Session Chair
Robert H. ATEN, EPSO/USAID, American Embassy, Jakarta
and
Steve Marks, the TIPP Project, Jakarta, Indonesia
“Imperfect Competition and Technology Advance: The Case of Indonesia”
Romeo M. BAUTISTA, S. Robinson, and M. El-Said, International
Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC
“Alternative Industrial Development Strategies for Indonesia:
A CGE Analysis”
Jere H. BEHRMAN, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA
Invited Lecture: “Schooling in Asia: Selected Micro Evidence on Determinants
and Effects and Policy Implications”
Teerana BHONGMAKAPAT, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
“Managing the Thai Crisis: Asset Bubbles, Globalization and Macroeconomic
Policy”
Voravidh CHAROENLERT, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
Session Chair
Suthiphand CHIRATHIVAT, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
Session Chair
Do Loc DIEP, National Center for Social Sciences and Humanities, Hanoi
“The Asian Financial and Monetary Crisis and the Renovation Process
of Vietnam.”
M. DUTTA, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ
“A Macroeconomic Core of Open Economies in Asia for Progressive Industrialization
in the New Millennium”
Mardi DUNGEY, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria and
Vance MARTIN, University of Melbourne, Parkville Victoria
“Contagion in the East Asian Currency Crisis: Evidence from Volatility
Decompositions”
Ashok GUHA , Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
“The Design of Decision-Making - a Study in Economic Administration
with reference to Indian Economic Reform”
Toshiaki HASEGAWA, Chuo University, Tokyo
“Japanese Economic Recovery and Interdependence of Asia-Pacific
Economies”
Rungsun HATAISEREE,, Bank of Thailand
“The Transmisssion of Monetary Policy: The Case of Thailand under the
Floating Exchange regime”
HUANG, Fan-Zhang, State Planning Commission of PRC, Beijing
ROUNDTABLE: “Macroeconomic Situation in China”
Nguyen Tri HUNG, Vietnbam National University, Ho Chi Minh City
“The Rate of Inflation in Vietnam in the Transition: 1985-97”
Steven L. HUSTED, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
“Monetary Models of Asian/Yen Exchange Rates”
Hiromitsu, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo
ROUNDTABLE: “Macroeconomic Fundamentals of Postwar Economic Performance
in Japan – A Great Success and Recent Frustration: Lessons to Asian Economies”
Wattana S. JANJAROEN and Siripen SUPAKANKUNTI, Chulalong
University, Bangkok, THAILAND
“The Health Services System and the Consequences from the
General Agreement of Trade in Service (GATS)”
Thienchay, KIRANANDANA, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
Opening Address
Saleem M. KHAN, Bloomsburg University of Pennsylvania, Bloomsburg,
PA
“Economic Regionalization and Development in Southeast Asia”
Duk-Choong KIM, Seoul
Chair, ROUNDTABLE “Asian Economies in the New Millennium”
Masumi KISHI, Faculty of Commerce, Chuo University, Tokyo
“The Role of Government Financial Institutions and the Thai Financial
Crisis”
Sung Y. KWACK, Howard University, Washington, DC
“Asia’s Financial Crisis and Non-performing Bank Loan Problems”
Hiro LEE, Nagoya University, Nagoya and David Roland-Hoist, Mills College, London “APEC Trade Liberalization : Economic Growth and Structural Adjustment”
Chawin LEENABANCHONG, Thammasat University, Bangkok
“What Went Wrong with Thailand’s Capital Flows”
Pisit LEEAHTAM, Ministry of Finance, Government of Thailand, Bangkok
Guest Speaker
Sukunda LEWIS and Shuji KASAJIMA, Thammasat University, Bangkok
“Capital Inflow and Bubble”
Yang-Taek LIM, Hanyang University, Seoul
“The Role of Foreign Direct Investment for Korea’s
Economic Recovery and Future Directions in Foreign Investment Promotion
Policy”
Kitti LIMSAKUL, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
“Social Impact of Trade Liberalization on Education”
Christina Y. LIU, National Taiwan University, Taipei
“The Interactions between the Exchange Rate and the Stock
Markets for Asia”
Jung-Chao LIU, State University of New York, Binghamton , NY and XU,
Lilai, LaTrobe University, Bundoora, Victoria
“China’s Foreign Exchange Policy and ASEAN’s Currency Crisis”
Peter J. LLOYD, The University of Melbourne, Victoria
,ROUNDTABLE: “The Architecture of the Multilateral Organizations”
Kanta MARWAH, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario
“The Origins and Contagion of Asian Financial Crisis, 1997: Some Whats
and Whys”
Anwar NASUTION, University of Indonesia, Jakarta
ROUNDTABLE: “ Notes on the Indonesian Crisis: Causes, Impacts
and Responses”
Chartchai PARASUK and Wimonrat SUKCHAROEN, National Finance Public Co, Bangkok, “Flexible Exchange Rates and Export Price Elasticity”
Chakramon PHASUKAVANICH, Office of the Board of Investment, Bangkok
Session Chair
Sumalee PITAYANON, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
Reporting Address
Pasuk PHONGPAICHIT, Chulalongkorn University
ROUNDTABLE: “Asian Economies in the New Millennium”
Vichai PUNPOCHA, Drasdner Bank AG, Bangkok
Session Chair
M. G. QUIBRIA, Assistant Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank, Manila
“Human Resource Development in Asian Economies in the New Millennium”
Amit S. RAY, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
“Are Foreign Firms Technologically More Active and Progressive?
Some Evidence from the Indian Chemical Industry”
Stephen REYNOLDS, Somchai, RATANAKOMUT, and James GANDER
University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, “Short-term and
Long-term Capital Structure for Firms in Southeast Asia”
Jurgen SCHRODER Universitat Mannheim, Mannheim ROUNDTABLE:
“ EURO, Dollar and the International Monetary System”
Pradeep SRIVASTAVA, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, ROUNDTABLE: “Progressive Industrialization and Development of the Indian Economy in the New Millennium”
Alfred STEINHERR, European Investment Bank, Luxembourg, Session Chair
Chayodom SABHASRI and Sunti TIRAPAT, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
“Convergence Criteria for ASEAN Economic Cooperation”
The Hon. M. R. Chatu Mongol SONAKUL, Governor, Bank of Thailand,
Bangkok
Keynote Address: “Optimal Monetary and Exchange Policy under
Global Financial Crisis”
Edita A. TAN, University of the Philippines, Manila,
“Policy Options for Human Capital Development in Asia”
Koji TANIGUCHI, Institute of Developing Economies, Tokyo
“Will GMS Development be Slowed for Recent Economic Crisis?”
Sunti TIRAPAT and Chayodom SABHASRI, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
“Prediction of Firms’ Failure Using Macroeconomic Variables”
Chyau TUAN and Linda F. Y. NG, The Chinese University of Hong Kong,
Hong Kong
“The Post-industrialization Economic Growth of Hong Kong in the Next
Millennium: Perspectives from a Mega-City Formation”
Shujiro URATA, Waseda University and Hiroki Kawai, Keio University,
Tokyo,
“The Locational Determinants of Japanese Foreign Direct Investment”
Vimut VANITCHAREANTHUM, Thammasat University, Bangkok
“Monetary Policy and Capital Inflow”
Prem S. VASHISHTHA, University of Delhi, Delhi
“Agricultural Growth and Sustainability: Human Capital
as Key Input”
Pairoj VONGVIPANOND, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
“Global Financial Crisis in Historical perspective”
Peter G. WARR, The Australian National University, Canberra
“Growth, Crisis and Poverty Incidence in Southeast Asia”
Paitoon WIBOONCHUTIKULA, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
“Analysis of Capital Flows’
Piyasisri WICKRAMASEKARA, ILO East Asia Multidisciplinary Advisory Team,
Bangkok
“The Impact of Economic Crisis on Employment and Labor Market in
Asian Countries”
XU Changsheng, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan
“China’s Macroeconomic Stability Policies in the Context of High Growth,
System Transition and Open Economic Policy”
XU Ming-qi, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Shanghai
“ China and Asia-Pacific Economies”
Twatchai YONGKITTIKUL, The Thai Bankers’ Association, Bangkok, Session Chair
Jang-Hee YOO and Chul Woo MOON, EWHA University, Seoul
“Real Success, Financial Fall: A Reassessment of Asian Economic Growth”
Tzong-shian YU, Chinese Institute of Economics & Business, Taipei
ROUNDTABLE: “Evolution of Commercial Banking and Financial Markets
in Taiwan”
For their funding support for the Conference our acknowledgement is due to
Asian Development Bank
Chulalongkorn Economics Association
Ministry of University Affairs, Bangkok
Chulalongkorn University
The Ford Foundation
The Asia Foundation
Very special thanks to
Professor Surasak DHEVA-AKSORN
Chairman, Chulalongkorn Economics Association
THE PROGRAM
The 22nd ACAES International Conference on Asian Economics
THEME
“A MACROECONOMIC CORE OF OPEN ECONOMY FOR PROGRESSIVE INDUSTRIALIZATION
AND DEVELOPMENT OF ASIAN ECONOMIES IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM”
sponsored jointly by
American Committee on Asian Economic Studies
Chulalongkorn University
Chulalongkorn Economics Association
In cooperation with
Asian Development Bank
December 16-18, 1998
Bangkok, Thailand
Wednesday December 16, 1998
8:00 – 9:00 Registration
8:45 10:00 Session 1. Inaugural Session
- Reporting Address
Professor Sumalee Pitayanon, Dean, Faculty of Economics
Chulalongkorn University
Welcome Address
- Professor Thienchay Kiranandana
President, Chulalongkorn University
- Professor M. Dutta.
Professor, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ
President and Chief
Executive Officer
American Committee
on Asian Economic Studies
- Keynote Address
The Honorable M. R. Chatu Mongol Sonakul
Governor, Bank of Thailand
“Optimal Monetary and Exchange Policy under Global Financial Crisis”
10:00 – 10:15 Coffee/Tea
10:15 – 11:30 Session 2: Special Lectures
Chairs: Edita A. Tan, University of The Philippines, Manila, Chalaiporn, Amonvatana, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
Lecture : Jere R. Behrman, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
“Schooling in Asia: Selected Micro Evidence on Determinants and Effects
and Policy Implications”
Peter G. Warr, The Australian National University , Canberra
“Growth, Crisis and Poverty Incidence in Southeast Asia”
11:30 – 12:30 Session 3: Meltdown of Selected Asian
Money Markets
Chairs: Anwar Nasution, University of Indonesia, Jakarta
Suthiphand Chirathivat, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
Teerana Bhongmakapat, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
“Managing the Crisis: Asset Bubbles, Globalization and Macroeconomic
Policy”
Masumi Kishi, Chuo University, Tokyo
“The Role of Government Financial Institutions and the Thai Financial
Crisis”
Rungsun Hataiseree, Bank of Thailand, Bangkok
“The Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Case of Thailand under the
Floating Exchange Rate Regime”
Sukunda Lewis and Shuji Kasajima, Thammasat University, Bnagkok
“Capital Inflow and Bubble”
12:30 – 13:30 LUNCH
13:30 – 15:00 Session 4: Financial Meltdown and Asian Industrialization
Chair: Narongchai Akrasanee, Seranee Holdings Co., Bangkok
M. Dutta, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ
“A Macroeconomic Core of Open Economies in Asia for Progressive
Industrialization in the New Millennium”
Shujiro Urata, Waseda University, Tokyo and Hiroki Kawai, Keio University, Tokyo, “The Locational Determinants of Japanese Foreign Direct Investment”
Do Loc Diep, National Center for Social Sciences and Humanities,
Hanoi
“The Asian Financial and Monetary Crisis & the Renovation
Process of Vietnam”
15:00 – 15:15 Coffee/Tea
15:15 – 18:00 Session 5 : Money and Financial Markets
Chairs: Tawachai Yongkittikul, Thai Banking Association, Bangkok
Masumi Kishi, Chuo University, Tokyo
Toshiaki Hasegawa, Chuo University, Tokyo
“Japanese Economic Recovery and Interdependence of Asia-Pacific
Economies”
Vimut Vanitchareanthum, Thammasat University, Bangkok
“Monetary Policy and Capital Inflow”
Koji Taniguchi, Institute of Developing Economies, Tokyo
“Will GMS Development be Slowed for Recent Economic Crisis”
Pairoj Vongvipanond, Chualongkorn University, Bangkok
“Global Financial Crisis in Historical Perspective”
Chayodom Sabhasri and Sunti Tirapat, Chulalongkorn University,
Bangkok
“Convergence Criteria for ASEAN Economic Cooperation”
Paitoon Wiboonchutikula, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
“Analysis of Capital Flows”
Comments: Narathip Chutiwongse, Chulalongkorn University,
Bangkok
Surasak Dheva-Aksorn, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
18:30 – 20:30 Reception
Thursday December 17, 1998
9:00 – 10:30 Session 6: Asia-Pacific Foreign Exchange Regime
- I
Chairs: Steven L. Husted, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh,
PA
Vichai Punpocha, Drasdner Bank, AG, Bangkok
Mardi Dungey , La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria and
Vance Martin, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria
“Contagion in the East Asian Currency Crisis: Evidence from Volatility
Decompositions”
Christina Y. Liu, National Taiwan University, Taipei
“The Interactions between the Exchange Rate and the Stock Markets
in Asia”
Kanta Marwah, Carleton University, Ottawa
“The Origins and Contagion of Asian Financial Crisis of
1997 – Whats ?WHYs
Steven L. Husted, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh,
PA
“Monetary Models of Asian/Yen Exchange Rates”
10:30 – 10:45 Coffee/Tea
10:45 – 12:30 Session 7: China, Hong Kong ,ASEAN
Chairs: Steven L. Husted, University of
Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
Ratana Sayakanit, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
Chyau Tuan and Linda F. Y. Ng, The Chinese Universioty of
Hong Kong
“The Post-Industrialization Economic Growth of Hong Kong in the Next
Millennium: Perspectives from a Mega-City Formation”
Xu Changsheng, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
“China’s Macroeconomic Stability Policies in the Context of High Growth,
System Transition and Open Economic Policy”
Xu Ming-qi, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Shanghai
“China and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation”
Jung-Chao Liu, State University of New York, Biunghamyton, NY and
Xu Lilai, LaTrobe University, Bundoora, Victoria
“China’s Foreign Exchange Policy and ASEAN’s Currency Crisis”
Chartchai Parasuk and Wimonrat Sukcharoen, National Finance Public
Co
Bangkok, “Flexible Exchange Rates and Export Price Elasticity”
Chayodom Sabhasri and Suniti Tirapat, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
“Convergence Criteria for ASEAN Economic Cooperation”
12:30 – 13:30 Lunch
13:30 – 18:00 Session 8: ROUNDTABLE:
Asian Economies in the New Millennium
inclusive of a 15-minute break for coffee/tea
Chair: Duk-Choong Kim, Ajou University, Seoul
Lectures:
Hirotmitsu Ishi, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo
“Macroecomic Fundamentals of Postwar Economic Performance in
Japan –
A Great Success and Recent Frustration: Lessons to Asian
Economies”
Huang, Fan-Zhang, State Planning Commission of PRC, Beijing
“Macroeconomic Situation in China”
Peter J. Lloyd, University of Melbourne, Victoria
“ The Architecture of Multilateral Organizations”
Jang-Hee Yoo and Chul Woo Moon, EWHA University, Seoul
“Real Success, Financial Fall: A Reassessment of Asian Economic
Growth”
M. G. Quibria, Asian Development Bank, Manila
“ Human Resource Development in Asian Economies in the New Millennium”
Tzong-shian Yu, Chinese Institute of Economics and Business, Taipei
“Evolution of Commercial Banking and Financial Markets in Taiwan”
Pradeep Srivastava, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, “ Progressive Industrialization and Development of the Indian Economy in the New Millennium”
Anwar Nasution, University of Indonesia, Jakarta
“ Notes on the Indonesian Crisis: Causes, Impacts and Responses”
Jurgen Schroder, Universitat Mannheim, Mannheim
“EURO, Dollar and the International Monetary System”
Pasuk Phongpaichit, Chulalongkorn University, Bnagkok
Comments: Chuta Manusphaibool, Chulalongkorn University,
Bangkok
18:30 – 20:30 Dinner
Guest Lecture:: Pisit Leeahtam
Ministry of Finance, Government of Thailand
Friday December 18, 1998
9:00 – 10:30 Session 9: Economies of Southeast and
South Asia - I
Chairs: Peter J. Lloyd, University of Melbourne, Victoria
Voravidh Charoenlert, Chulalongkorn University,
Bangkok
Romeo M. Bautista, S. Robinson and M. El-Said
International Food Policy Research Institute, Washingtoin, DC
“Alternative Development Strategies for Indonesia: A CGE Analysis”
Ashok Guha, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
“ The Design of Decision-making – a Study in Economic Administration
with Reference to Indian Economic Reform”
Robert H. Aten, EPSO/USAID, Jakarta
“ Imperfcet Competition and Technology Advance: The Case of Indonesia”
Saleem M. Khan, Bloomsburg University, Bloomsburg, PA
“Economic Regionalization and Development in South Asia”
10:30 – 10:45 Coffee/Tea
10:45 - 12:30 Session 10: Economies of Southeast and South Asia - II
Chairs: Anwar Nasution, University of Indonesia, Jakarta
Peter G. Warr, Australian National University,
Canberra
Juanjai Ajanant, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
“Trade and Industrialization of Thailand in 2020”
Chawin Leenabanchong, Thammasat University, Bangkok
“What Went Wrong with Thailand’s Capital Flows?”
Nguyen Tri Hung, Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City
“The Rate of Inflation in Vietnam in Transition – 1985-1997”
Momtaz Uddin Ahmed, Dhaka University, Dhaka
“ Foreign Direct Investment and Technology Flows in Asia and the Pacific
Region in the 1990s”
12:30 – 13:30 Lunch
13: 30 – 15:30 Session 11: Direct Foreign Investment
Chairs: Alfred Steinherr, European Investment Bank, Luxemburg
Linda F. Y. Ng, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Yang-Taek Lim, Hanyang University, Seoul
“The Role of Foreign Direct Investment for Korea’s Economic Recovery
and Future Directions in Foreign Investment Promotion Policy”
Amit S. Ray, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
“Are Foreign Firms Technologically More Active and Progressive? Some
Evidence from the Chemical Industry in India”
Stephen Reynolds, Somchai Ratanakomut and James Gander
University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
“Short-term and Long-term Capital Structure for Firms in South
East Asia”
Sung Y. Kwack, Howard University, Washington, DC
“Asia’s Financial Crisis and Non-Performing Bank Loans”
15:30 – 15:45 Coffee/Tea
15:45 – 18:00 Session 12: Human Capital: Education/Health/Environment
Chairs: Hiromitsu Ishi, Hitotsubashi University , Tokyo
Jere R. Behrman, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA
Hiro Lee, Nagoya University, Nagoya and David-Roland-Hoist,
Mills College London, “Apec Trade Liberalization and the Environment: Will
Higher Growth Rates be Compatible with Improved Environmental Quality?”
Edita A. Tan, University of the Philippines, Quezon City
“Policy Options for Human Capital Development in Asia”
Prem S. Vashishtha, University of Delhi, Delhi
“Agricultural Growth and Sustainability: Human Capital a Key Input”
“Wattana S. Janjaroen and Siripen Supakankunti, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, “The Health Services System and the Consequences of the General Agreement of Trade in Service (GATS)”
Kitti Limsakul, Chukakongkorn University, Bangkok
Social Impact of Trade Liberalization on Education”
Piyasisri Wickramasekara. ILO East Asia Multidisciplinary Advisory
Team
Bangkok, “ The Impact of Economic Crisis on Employment and Labor Market
in Asian Countries”
Comments: Voravidh Charoenlert, Chulalongkorn University,
Bangkok
Waranya Patarasuk, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
17:30 – 17:45 Session13: Closing Remarks
Jere H. Behrman, University of Pennsylvania
Sumalee Pitayanon, Chulalongkorn University
19:00 – 20:30 Farewell Dinner